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(U.S. Energy Information Administration) The June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. economy continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020. The increase in economic activity and easing of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to rising energy use. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 6.7% in 2021 and by 4.9% in 2022. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit. The EIA forecast assumes continuing economic growth and increasing mobility as a result of the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic. Any developments that would cause deviations from these assumptions would likely cause energy and prices to deviate from their forecast.

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